{"id":17571,"date":"2025-05-02T09:10:33","date_gmt":"2025-05-02T16:10:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.debito.org\/?p=17571"},"modified":"2025-05-02T09:10:58","modified_gmt":"2025-05-02T16:10:58","slug":"my-shingetsu-news-agency-vm-column-66-how-trump-survives-scandals-where-i-offer-a-theory-for-the-longstanding-question-how-the-hell-does-he-get-away-with-all-this-april-30-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.debito.org\/?p=17571","title":{"rendered":"My Shingetsu News Agency VM column 66: “How Trump survives scandals”, where I offer a theory for the longstanding question, “How the hell does he get away with all this?” (April 30, 2025)"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Hi Blog. \u00a0Here’s my latest Shingetsu News Agency Visible Minorities Column. \u00a0Enjoy. \u00a0Debito Arudou, Ph.D.<\/p>\n

\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/<\/p>\n

HOW DOES TRUMP SURVIVE SO MANY SCANDALS?<\/strong>
\nPolitical Science might provide an answer<\/strong>
\nBy Debito Arudou, SNA VM 66 April 30, 2025<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Courtesy https:\/\/shingetsunewsagency.com\/2025\/04\/30\/visible-minorities-how-trump-survives-scandals\/<\/a><\/p>\n

The Trump Administration has just finished its first 100 days.\u00a0 <\/span>It\u2019s a good time to look back on what\u2019s been done during a president\u2019s \u201choneymoon period\u201d, the high water mark of his political momentum; and b) it\u2019s a bellwether for the pace and direction of the rest of the presidency. \u00a0<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

So far the report card is not good. \u00a0<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s approval rating at this point in his presidency is the lowest of any modern president (except himself last time).\u00a0 <\/span>His systematic yet shambolic dismantling of institutions and agreements has alarmed allies and delighted adversaries.\u00a0 <\/span>His tariffs are ungrounded in reality and applied in ways that help nobody except insider traders on the stock market.\u00a0 <\/span>His hiring of incompetent people in the name of \u201cmeritocracy\u201d have caused scandal after scandal, which would be grounds for impeachment for any other president.\u00a0 <\/span>And so on.\u00a0<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Anyone following the news knows all this and probably skipped the last paragraph.\u00a0 <\/span>So what new insights could I possibly offer? \u00a0<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Well, one mystery has always been, \u201cHow can he get away with all this?\u201d\u00a0 <\/span>How does Trump survive scandal after scandal? \u00a0<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Political Science may have an answer.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

POLITICAL PARTIES AND POLARIZATION<\/h3>\n

Brace yourself for some theory about political parties.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Broadly speaking, political parties in functioning multi-party democracies come in two flavors. \u00a0<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The first is \u201cParty-Centered\u201d political parties.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

As the term implies, everything is centered on what the party organization wants.\u00a0 <\/span>Candidates subsume their individual beliefs to ride the coattails of the party brand.\u00a0 <\/span>Representatives toe the party line or get expelled. \u00a0<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

You\u2019ll find these political parties in parliamentary systems, e.g., Europe and Japan. \u00a0<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

For example, in Japan I was lobbying individual candidates for their support of a law against racial discrimination right before an election.\u00a0 <\/span>Their reaction?\u00a0 <\/span>They deferred to the party\u2019s manifesto.\u00a0 <\/span>Nobody would take an individual stance if the party hadn\u2019t taken a stance. \u00a0<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The clearest example was the Japan Communist Party.\u00a0 <\/span>All they would say was, \u201cWe will run it by the Central Committee\u201d (chuo iinkai).\u00a0 <\/span>If it eventually created a party plank, everyone followed it or was expelled from the party. \u00a0<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

That is how party discipline is enforced.\u00a0 <\/span>Consequently, voters in \u201cParty-Centered\u201d systems vote less for individual candidates in their district and more for a party. \u00a0<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

As such, this system is called \u201cParty Government\u201d (as in, a government controlled by parties, not bureaucrats, dictators, or individual politicians). \u00a0<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Under \u201cParty Government,\u201d political polarization is normal.\u00a0 <\/span>Parties enforce strict their dogma, appeal only to their base, and once in power shut the opposition out of policymaking. \u00a0<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

What stops this system from becoming undemocratic is the existence of multiple parties, offering voters enough choices so usually no one elected party has complete control.\u00a0 <\/span>Then parties form coalitions in the legislature and must compromise or lose their majority. \u00a0<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Now contrast this with the American system:<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

INDIVIDUALISTIC AMERICAN POLITICAL PARTIES\u00a0<\/span><\/h3>\n

The other flavor of political parties is \u201cBig-Tent\u201d, since the United States has only two viable options:\u00a0 <\/span>Democrats or Republicans.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Of course, each party has an ideology and policy stances, but party discipline is only loosely enforced.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

In elections, people run as individuals and create a brand for themselves within their electoral district.\u00a0 <\/span>With an \u201centrepreneurial\u201d style, American candidates generally run and fund their own campaigns, appealing to their local constituents\u2019 narrow interests.\u00a0 <\/span>For example, you see candidates running on oddly specific local issues such as ethanol subsidies in Iowa or Jewish space lasers in northwest Georgia. \u00a0<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Once elected, they also vote in Congress as individuals.\u00a0 <\/span>They can even vote against their own party without being expelled.\u00a0 <\/span>Why?\u00a0 <\/span>Because a \u201cBig-Tent Party\u201d has to hold together as many seats as possible or lose their majority.\u00a0 <\/span>This means, for example, Democrats occasionally voting for Republican-sponsored measures if there\u2019s a close election in their home district. \u00a0<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

A generation ago, there was plenty of overlap in the \u201cBig Tents.\u201d\u00a0 <\/span>Some Democrats were further right than some Republicans and vice versa, meaning there was space for compromise that one would expect in a country as diverse as America.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

But that has all changed.\u00a0 <\/span>Conditions where polarization in American politics have been brewing since the 1990s.\u00a0 <\/span>Now the \u201cBig Tents\u201d no longer overlap.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

THE RISE OF \u201cCONDITIONAL PARTY GOVERNMENT\u201d IN AMERICA<\/h3>\n

The Republicans in particular have become more like European \u201cParty-Centered\u201d systems.\u00a0 <\/span>Not only can they publicly shame and deter members for not toeing the party line, they also can effectively expel them through early elections (i.e., primaries). \u00a0<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

This happens when a party leader manages to amass powers by diktat.\u00a0 <\/span>Meaning he has control over essentials such as party leadership, policymaking committees, the floor agenda, and party funding.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

This is often welcome in a Congress that is slow and fractious by design.\u00a0 <\/span>Finally, a leader who \u201cgets shit done.\u201d\u00a0 <\/span>Then in election season, the party gets more votes.\u00a0 <\/span>The party then gets more seats, making the party leader even stronger.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

It\u2019s a positive feedback loop.\u00a0 <\/span>If the party leader can hold that together, you get one-party dominance.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

This is called \u201cConditional Party Government,\u201d meaning that only under certain conditions do you get European political party dynamics in America.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

We had those conditions than a century ago with a House Speaker nicknamed \u201cCzar Joe Cannon.\u201d\u00a0 <\/span>But it didn\u2019t last long.\u00a0 <\/span>He got drunk with power, was booted out, and rules were later changed so that the Speakership never got as dictatorial again.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

That held until the 1990s, when Newt Gingrich took back the Speakership for the Republicans for the first time in forty years.\u00a0 <\/span>He assumed enough power to once again create Conditional Party Government.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Gingrich not only shut out the Democrats from power, but also depicted them as the \u201cenemy\u201d who were so \u201cevil\u201d they had no right to have power ever again.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

He too soon got drunk with power and lost his Speakership.\u00a0 <\/span>But this time things didn\u2019t snap back like they did under Czar Cannon.\u00a0 <\/span>When Democrats were back in power they took revenge, enforcing their own party discipline and excluding the Republicans.\u00a0 <\/span>Then the Republicans came back and it became a cyclical diktat tit-for-tat.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Now, after a generation of Conditional Party Government, polarization has become institutionalized to a degree probably not seen since before the Civil War. \u00a0<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The difference is that if America had been a parliamentary system, sooner or later people within a party ruled by fiat would call foul, break ranks, call for a vote of \u201cNo Confidence,\u201d and trigger elections.\u00a0 <\/span>Then new parties and coalitions would form in a multiparty system that forces compromise. \u00a0<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Not in America, where elections only happen at prescribed intervals.\u00a0 <\/span>If you break ranks, the government doesn\u2019t fall, and you still have to live with the fallout under the same leadership for years, probably getting primaried out of your seat before the next general election.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u201cCONDITIONAL PARTY GOVERNMENT\u201d ABETS AUTHORITARIANISM<\/h3>\n

This is where Trump comes in.\u00a0 <\/span>This time, the dictatorial party leader is not a leader of a Congressional chamber, with powers limited to that body.\u00a0 <\/span>It\u2019s the president. \u00a0<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

And since that is a separate branch of government and the most powerful leadership position in the world, that means the perfect storm of American \u201cConditional Party Government\u201d is undermining the very Separation of Powers that keeps US democracy intact.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

But to get back to the original question:\u00a0 <\/span>Here\u2019s why Trump survives scandals.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

As telecaster and author Chris Hayes insightfully noted in a recent interview<\/a>:\u00a0 <\/span>\u201cThe thing that Trump learned from his first term is, if no-one inside the tent starts criticizing, you can kind of hold together this 40 to 42 percent, and then everything just sort of goes away if you stick it out long enough.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

So there you have it.\u00a0 <\/span>\u201cConditional Party Government\u201d encourages decisive moves in ways that only rule by diktat will let you, even if that rule is capricious and corrupt.\u00a0 <\/span>Because you can enforce party discipline so that your side can\u2019t criticize and undermine what you\u2019re doing. \u00a0<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

All you have to do is weather the storm and let the next scandal you generate overtake the previous one.\u00a0 <\/span>Impeachment obviously doesn\u2019t work, and consequences in elections aren\u2019t going to happen for years.\u00a0 <\/span>So just keep riding the wave of the scandal and jump on the next one before it crashes.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

PROPAGANDA CLOSES THE POSITIVE FEEDBACK LOOP<\/h3>\n

There\u2019s one more key factor in all of this.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Party discipline isn\u2019t just forced on party cadres.\u00a0 <\/span>In America, it\u2019s enforced in the media.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

A person by the name of Roger Ailes once lamented that his erstwhile boss, Richard Nixon, would probably not have been hounded out of the presidency in 1974 had there been more \u201cpro-administration coverage<\/a>.\u201d \u00a0<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

He noted in a memo, \u201cPeople are lazy.\u00a0 <\/span>With television you just sit\u2014watch\u2014listen. The thinking is done for you.”\u00a0 <\/span>Nixon embraced the idea, saying he and his supporters needed “our own news.\u201d\u00a0 \u00a0<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Years later, Ailes launched Fox News.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

This propaganda network, designed to support the Republicans under all circumstances, remains the most watched cable news network.\u00a0 <\/span>It\u2019s what holds together the 40-42 percent minimum bedrock of public support necessary to weather any scandal. \u00a0<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Consider how effective it\u2019s been.\u00a0 <\/span>It saved Trump from taking responsibility for hundreds of thousands of unnecessary deaths from a botched Covid response, two impeachment convictions, and criminal conviction afterwards.\u00a0 <\/span>It even got him re-elected!<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Decades of \u201cConditional Party Government\u201d have produced the most effective authoritarian feedback loop ever seen in American history.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

WHEN WILL THE FEVER BREAK?<\/h3>\n

We\u2019ve asked many times when people will wake up and see the damage Trump is doing to American democracy.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

But even after the most disastrous first 100 days in modern American presidential history, that\u2019s still not happening. \u00a0<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s approval rating is still at around 40 percent, a level he\u2019s bounced back from in previous scandals.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

So scandal is in fact the status quo, and all we can do is wait for the next one, because his supporters will never desert him, and his party will always back him thanks to \u201cConditional Party Government.\u201d<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

This all happened because of America\u2019s creaky and flawed democracy, one that has always favored conservative interests.\u00a0 <\/span>It remains hard to reform after 250 years of bad habits.\u00a0 <\/span>As I\u2019ve written before, things have to get really dire, including wars and deaths of presidents, before landmark reforms happen.\u00a0 <\/span>I cannot see how bad it has to get before Trump loses power. \u00a0<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

And even if Trump leaves quietly in 2028 (which seems unlikely), his legacy will linger.\u00a0 <\/span>He\u2019s been the most influential person in American politics for a decade now, permanently damaging American democratic culture.\u00a0 <\/span>Now there is a new generation of mini-Trumps, young voters who came of age during the Trump Era, sharing his transactional world view because they think it\u2019s normal.\u00a0 <\/span>It\u2019s all they know.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

I saw a shift like this happen when I was their age.\u00a0 <\/span>In college, I saw how Ronald Reagan spawned a generation of cynical Yuppies, who believed \u201cgreed is good\u201d and you don\u2019t criticize your fellow Republicans.\u00a0 <\/span>Once they were my classmates.\u00a0 <\/span>Now they lead the Republican Party. \u00a0<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

I was even a classmate of the Federalist Society\u2019s Leonard Leo at Cornell, and witnessed how a conservative-leaning jurist\u2019s thinking evolved to the point where he could justify the ruthless politicization and corruption of the judiciary. \u00a0<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

As long as his political party did whatever necessary to win any contest, there would always be someone who would explain it all away \u2014 no matter how big the scandal.\u00a0 <\/span>Once it was spin doctors tethered to a political party.\u00a0 <\/span>Now it\u2019s Fox News.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

As the first 100 days reveal the antidemocratic impulses under a lawless president, fortified by America\u2019s \u201cConditional Party Government,\u201d I don\u2019t see any way out of this.\u00a0 <\/span>The perfect storm remains perfect.\u00a0 <\/span>Short of a black-swan event, Trump will continue to escape any scandal, and America\u2019s democracy and rule of law will founder.<\/em><\/strong>
\nENDS<\/p>\n

======================
\nDo you like what you read on Debito.org? \u00a0Want to help keep the archive active and support Debito.org’s activities? \u00a0Please consider donating a little something. \u00a0More details here<\/a>. Or if you prefer something less complicated, just click on an advertisement below.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Intro: The Trump Administration has just finished its first 100 days.\u00a0 It\u2019s a good time to look back on what\u2019s been done during a president\u2019s \u201choneymoon period\u201d, the high water mark of his political momentum; and b) it\u2019s a bellwether for the pace and direction of the rest of the presidency. \u00a0<\/p>\n

So far the report card is not good. \u00a0<\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s approval rating at this point in his presidency is the lowest of any modern president (except himself last time).\u00a0 His systematic yet shambolic dismantling of institutions and agreements has alarmed allies and delighted adversaries.\u00a0 His tariffs are ungrounded in reality and applied in ways that help nobody except insider traders on the stock market.\u00a0 His hiring of incompetent people in the name of \u201cmeritocracy\u201d have caused scandal after scandal, which would be grounds for impeachment for any other president.\u00a0 And so on.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Anyone following the news knows all this and probably skipped the last paragraph.\u00a0 So what new insights could I possibly offer? \u00a0<\/p>\n

Well, one mystery has always been, \u201cHow can he get away with all this?\u201d\u00a0 How does Trump survive scandal after scandal? \u00a0<\/p>\n

Political Science may have an answer….<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,22,20,13,77,31],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-17571","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-academia","category-cultural-issue","category-history","category-media","category-on-democracy","category-tangents"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.debito.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17571","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.debito.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.debito.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.debito.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.debito.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=17571"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.debito.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17571\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":17574,"href":"https:\/\/www.debito.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17571\/revisions\/17574"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.debito.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=17571"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.debito.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=17571"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.debito.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=17571"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}