{"id":17691,"date":"2026-03-01T14:25:07","date_gmt":"2026-03-01T22:25:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.debito.org\/?p=17691"},"modified":"2026-03-02T16:00:58","modified_gmt":"2026-03-03T00:00:58","slug":"debitos-shingetsu-news-agency-col-73-revolution-is-due-in-america-march-1-2026-democracies-happen-because-of-a-middle-class-but-you-have-to-keep-it-fed-and-watered-america-is-no-lo","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.debito.org\/?p=17691","title":{"rendered":"Debito’s Shingetsu News Agency col 73, “Revolution is Due in America” (March 1, 2026). Democracies happen because of a Middle Class, but you have to keep it fed and watered.\u00a0 America is no longer doing that."},"content":{"rendered":"

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Hi Blog. \u00a0The further away my studies and employment take me from Japanese politics, the closer I get to a more universalist view of politics and democracy in general. \u00a0That’s where this blog is headed as well. \u00a0I hope you will join me on this journey. \u00a0Debito Arudou, Ph.D.<\/p>\n

\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/<\/p>\n

REVOLUTION IS DUE IN AMERICA<\/h2>\n

Subtitle:\u00a0 Democracies happen because of a Middle Class, but you have to keep it fed and watered.\u00a0 America is no longer doing that.<\/em><\/h3>\n

By Debito Arudou.\u00a0 Shingetsu News Agency, “Visible Minorities” column 73, March 1, 2026<\/h4>\n

Courtesy https:\/\/shingetsunewsagency.com\/2026\/03\/01\/visible-minorities-revolution-is-due\/<\/a><\/p>\n

As I get older, I\u2019m seeing the benefits of the habits of lifelong learning.\u00a0 I\u2019m constantly curious about worlds out there, and that research energy is channeled into college classes I teach.\u00a0 Since every semester I\u2019m assigned classes in different fields, I\u2019m constantly acquiring new knowledge and teaching it in real time.\u00a0 I\u2019m learning as my students learn.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

It\u2019s a healthy dynamic.\u00a0 All that knowledge and the 10,000 hours of classroom practice has crystalized into wisdom.\u00a0 And with it, I can see around corners for my columns.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

This column is about something I\u2019ve recently realized about how countries (or, as we call them in our field, \u201cNation-States\u201d) rise and fall.\u00a0 And since the United States is following all the patterns of failing empires, this is a teachable lesson in real time.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

HOW NATION-STATES BEAT FEUDALISM<\/span><\/h3>\n

Calling a country a \u201cNation-State\u201d is no accident.\u00a0 It\u2019s the combination of \u201cNations\u201d (i.e., peoples linked by shared history, tribe, language, culture, geography, ethnicity, physical attributes, etc.) and \u201cStates\u201d (something top-down and artificial, created at the stroke of a pen with defined borders, laws, and leaders).<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Obviously, Nations are much older than States, and the modern \u201cNation-States\u201d that we live in basically started (according to Eric Storm, Nationalism<\/span>, Princeton University Press, 2024) with the popular revolutions of the United States and France in the late 1700s.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Before then, societies were organized feudalistically:\u00a0 top-down with kings and warlords demanding tribute from peasants and offering defense in return.\u00a0 Most people had no say in who their leaders were, or in the direction their society would take.\u00a0 So if you got a bad king or oligarch, tough beans.\u00a0 Your life was to tend to your farm and pay taxes to the nobles, and just hope the king kept his promises to protect you from invaders or didn\u2019t start a war.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Feudalism lasted thousands of years, and there was no particular reason why we should have gotten a different system.\u00a0 Except for one magic innovation:\u00a0 The Middle Class.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

FREEDOM AS A COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE<\/span><\/h3>\n

Some feudal societies eventually realized that centuries of constant wars with your neighbors were costly in terms of people and treasure. \u00a0You got into cycles of debt that somebody had to pay, and it was the peasants who shouldered the burden.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

However, you can tax your peasants only so much before they starve or revolt.\u00a0 Ruling elites eventually realized that if you instead allowed your peasants to get richer, you could collect more taxes.\u00a0 Then you could use those extra revenues to fund more armies for defense or even conquest.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Tangible results appeared when tiny city-states (such as Venice) started punching above their weight in battle against vast old kingdoms.\u00a0 Some (such as the Dutch) had even gotten rich enough to find resources abroad by establishing ports and colonies.\u00a0 That\u2019s how the feudal governments with prospering Middle Classes discovered a positive feedback loop, gaining a competitive advantage over bloated kingdoms and empires.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

But how did peasants become a Middle Class? \u00a0They were allowed to do things you\u2019ve all heard of in the US Declaration of Independence:\u00a0 The god-given inalienable right to \u201cLife, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.\u201d<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Seems like a trite slogan, but it\u2019s fundamental.\u00a0 Giving people enough freedom to make basic life choices, such as pursuing skills and trades beyond mere tract farming, and to keep enough of their hard-earned money to invest in materials and property, is revolutionary.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

It ultimately created a civil society beyond the total control of the nobles.\u00a0 From the late 1600s to the early 1800s, mobs of Middle Class became the engine of growth and power as nascent Nation-States proliferated throughout the world.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

I WOULD DIE FOR YOU<\/span><\/h3>\n

But one more innovation yielded an even bigger competitive advantage:\u00a0 patriotism.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Even with a burgeoning Middle Class, if the king didn\u2019t have a strong enough military, there was nothing to stop barbarians beyond the gate from rushing in and looting everything.\u00a0 You needed people who were willing to fight and die for the State.\u00a0 Feudalism\u2019s practice of mandatory conscription and hiring mercenaries didn\u2019t breed the fighting spirit necessary to mobilize troops and maintain standing armies cheaply.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

This was where nascent States realized they had to do something with the civil societies developing within their borders — to appeal to their local communities (as \u201cNations\u201d) and make them feel part of a national one:\u00a0 an \u201cimagined community\u201d where people felt they \u201cbelonged\u201d to the State.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The first ones that blended them successfully as a Nation-State were France and the US.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

They were ripe for this.\u00a0 Both the peoples of France and the US were stuck in unfair taxation regimes\u2014the US having no say over their trade relations or the UK\u2019s weird wars in their backyard; and France, where the nobility and clergy paying no taxes while the people starved under famine.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Things came to a head when their rulers refused to reform their tax codes.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

That\u2019s the thing about a Middle Class\u2014you can profit from them, but you better give something back.\u00a0 \u00a0Keep social inequalities to a reasonable level or things go sour quickly.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

And they did.\u00a0 The French Revolution created legislative reforms that eventually exterminated their ancient regimes, and the Americans cleansed their society of the British Loyalists, French, and Indians.\u00a0\u00a0 Both societies created a society of laws, not of people, that made things clear where political power resided.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

But then their paths diverged.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

LEARNING HOW TO HARNESS THEIR MIDDLE CLASS<\/span><\/h3>\n

As you know, France fell into chaos:\u00a0 mob rule, a governing system without \u201cchecks and balances\u201d (which the Americans took note of), and ideological purity leading to such extremism that France was soon a monarchy again.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Yet even Emperor Napoleon was smart enough to harness the Middle Class. \u00a0He didn\u2019t revert to feudalism.\u00a0 He kept the Revolutionaries\u2019 universal application of tax codes, laws, land reform, legal citizenship, the abolition of serfdom, unified systems of calendars and measures, and civil registries, where nobody appears above the law.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

He also kept their most fundamental innovation:\u00a0 Citizenship.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

It was sense of \u201cFrenchness\u201d and community that was surprisingly progressive.\u00a0 Not only were the rules for who was entitled to the rights of being \u201cFrench\u201d clear and written down, they were even transferable.\u00a0 Anyone (even slaves and secular Jews) could become French citizens.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

This made France\u2019s sense of \u201ccommunity\u201d a legal status, not something determined from birth.\u00a0 With that came the idea of belonging and being protected under the rule of law, and working within systems where you got ahead based upon merit, not birthright.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

This new model of national \u201cbelonging\u201d generated by the State was surprisingly effective.\u00a0 Napoleon used it to convince (not just compel) French citizens to fight and die for France.\u00a0 (How else was Napoleon able to rally so many people to fight surprisingly successful wars of conquest across Europe in a single lifetime?)<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

And it inspired peoples and leaders (such as Toussaint L’Ouverture, Miguel Hidalgo, Jose de San Martin, and Simon Bolivar) around the world that self-rule under Nation-States was possible.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

THE US AS HAPPY ACCIDENT<\/span><\/h3>\n

The American model was a bit different, and it had flaws that should have doomed it.\u00a0 It kept many of its fundamental inequalities\u2014such as women, non-landowning males, Catholics, slaves, and Indigenous peoples not being allowed the full rights of US citizenship.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

But America got lucky in terms of their Middle Class.\u00a0 One had been developing in the Thirteen Colonies for more than a century.\u00a0 And by accident of geography it had a safety valve:\u00a0 plenty of land.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Want to become a landowning citizen?\u00a0 Head west and grab it.\u00a0 Want to live outside a discriminatory system?\u00a0 Head for the frontier where there are few laws and take your chances.\u00a0 America\u2019s Middle Class prospered well enough to tolerate all manner of inequities and inequalities (the exception being the Civil War, of course).<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

As the citizenship franchise expanded over the next two centuries to include anyone over the age of 18, America developed an \u201cimagined community\u201d mobilized by the slogan of the \u201cAmerican Dream\u201d:\u00a0 You will prosper as part of the landowning Middle Class (or better) if you just work hard.\u00a0 Keep the peace and your children will have a better life than yours.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

But now I think the US\u2019s luck has run out.\u00a0 The Americans don\u2019t see their system as merely accidental.\u00a0 They see it as inevitable.\u00a0 And that\u2019s why people aren\u2019t doing what it takes to maintain it.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

THE BREAKDOWN OF THE \u201cAMERICAN DREAM\u201d<\/span><\/h3>\n

The American promise of living a better life than your parents is now hard to see.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

You hear about the \u201caffordability\u201d crisis in political slogans.\u00a0 Let\u2019s quantify it:<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, groceries<\/a> in cities cost about 25% more in 2025 than they did in 2020, and in general have risen<\/a> 19% just since 2022.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

American higher education, the ticket to upward mobility in a meritocracy, has reached the point of perpetual debt. \u00a0The average cost of college has increased<\/a> by 84% since the year 2000.\u00a0 And that\u2019s before we get to the newfound threat of AI replacing white-collar jobs.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The prospect of buying a house is out of reach no matter how hard you work.\u00a0 Adjusted for inflation, house prices have increased<\/a> by about 65% since 2000 while median household incomes have barely risen.\u00a0 Polls<\/a> indicate that 86% of people who want to buy a house can\u2019t afford one.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The perpetual renting class are seeing rent increases<\/a> of around 3.5% just over the past year (sometimes higher in places; and if it\u2019s over 7% per year, that means rent doubles every decade).\u00a0 According to the US Treasury Department<\/a>, rents have already risen by 20% since 2000 even adjusted for inflation (in Arizona<\/a> alone, they increased 84% between 2019 to 2014).\u00a0 Meanwhile, corporations are snatching up these unaffordable properties and cartelizing future prices with algorithmic pricing software<\/a>.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

American annual health care costs per capita have doubled<\/a> to nearly $16,000 per year over the past 25 years.\u00a0 Nearly one in ten Americans<\/a> have no health insurance at all.\u00a0 And two-thirds<\/a> of all medical bankruptcies worldwide happen in the United States.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

More than two thirds<\/a> of Americans live paycheck to paycheck, meaning they can\u2019t save and invest.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The results are stark:\u00a0 \u00a0According to a report<\/a> filed with the US Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee (2025), American life expectancies differ widely by geography, race, and economic class\u2014sometimes by as much as 20 years!<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

This is intolerable.\u00a0 Especially since the erosion of Middle Class is happening while wealth inequalities are becoming the widest in history.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

THE RICH GET RICHER<\/span><\/h3>\n

According to the Federal Reserve<\/a>, the Top 1% of the US population owns nearly a third of all wealth in the US (where the Top 0.1% own nearly 14%).\u00a0 The Bottom 50% owns only 2.5%.\u00a0 According to the RAND Corporation<\/a>, the Top 1% have absorbed $50 trillion from the Bottom 90% since 1974.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

It\u2019s only accelerated since Trump\u2019s reelection.\u00a0 In only one year<\/a>, the top 15 US billionaires have their wealth increase by nearly $1 trillion, while total US billionaire wealth grew by more than $8 trillion\u2014probably the largest sudden transfer of wealth in human history.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s family alone has earned more than $4 billion off the presidency<\/a> just over the past year, according to NPR.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

According to a cute little wealth tracker<\/a>, Elon Musk makes more than $7000 dollars a second, or more than America\u2019smedian household income<\/a> in about twelve seconds.\u00a0 He is on track to become the world\u2019s first trillionaire.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

And like in France before their revolution, the superrich<\/a> can pay little if no federal income tax.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

We all saw this coming.\u00a0 On Inauguration Day 2025, America\u2019s business oligarchs and tech billionaires were lined up<\/a>behind Trump\u2019s rostrum in a display of who\u2019s really in charge.\u00a0 That\u2019s why J.D. Vance, a tech-bro himself<\/a>, was Trump\u2019s weird pick for VP.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

It\u2019s unclear how much longer this situation can continue.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

LEARN FROM HISTORY<\/span><\/h3>\n

The point is that the Middle Class is how feudal societies transformed into the modern Nation-State.\u00a0 But once you create a Middle Class, you must cultivate it.\u00a0 Keep them fed and watered and feeling like they belong and can get ahead.\u00a0 Or revolutions happen.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

America is not even trying anymore.\u00a0 The \u201cAmerican Dream\u201d is bygone, as is the guarantee of the rule of law and constitutional rights.\u00a0 The current administration is even abrogating a fundamental innovation of the modern Nation-State\u2014citizenship\u2014by mass deportations of even legal citizens-in-progress and denaturalization.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

I predicted in an earlier column that there will be blood before this phase passes.\u00a0 As seen in lethal ICE raids<\/a>, there has been blood and without consequence.\u00a0 As in days of yore, the President and his henchman have a king\u2019s immunity from accountability.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Despite its 250th<\/sup> anniversary, American democracy has always been a bit creaky, with norms instead of laws that a chief executive could exploit.\u00a0 Countries that used the American model for their Nation-State wound up with autocratic executives.\u00a0 America didn\u2019t because it got lucky.\u00a0 And because of that it never learned the outcomes of populism like France did.\u00a0 \u201cIt couldn\u2019t happen here\u201d has always been America\u2019s blind spot.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

SO WHERE IS THE FLASHPOINT?<\/span><\/h3>\n

Time for another prediction:<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

A draft executive order<\/a> made public a few days ago dictates that Trump will declare a national emergency to take control of the 2026 Midterm Elections (for example, feds seizing ballot boxes and counting the votes themselves).\u00a0 This despite the administration of American elections being constitutionally delegated to the states.\u00a0 California<\/a> has already proposed laws limiting federal presence in elections.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The flashpoint will be when state and federal forces skirmish.\u00a0 Then we will see the movements to secede from the union appear in lawmaker offices.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Already California\u2019s Middle Class pays by far<\/a> the most taxes to the federal government and gets the least back. \u00a0This is basically true of 19 other<\/a> mostly left-leaning states.\u00a0 Proposals have been floated to just not pay the feds\u2014called “soft-secession<\/a>\u201d\u2014and do better things with the $800 billion California would save.\u00a0 And that\u2019s where the Democratic-leaning \u201cblue states\u201d are headed.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

This is how the Middle Class is fighting back.\u00a0 As, historically, it always does when it is over-taxed and feeling like it\u2019s not getting anything back.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Democracy exists for a reason.\u00a0 Compared to all the other governing systems, it is actually the best way to allocate resources over time.\u00a0 Let\u2019s see if people in democracies can learn from history and change course.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

I\u2019m not sure that\u2019s going to happen in America.\u00a0 Trump has the most personal power of any president in American history, and he rules with complete historical incuriosity.\u00a0 His toadies only study historical examples of how to advance their power.\u00a0 They don\u2019t study the backlash because they are so cocksure they can suppress it.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

But there will be backlash\u2014because the Middle Class aren\u2019t powerless peasants.\u00a0 So, sadly, there will be more blood.\u00a0 Where it all ends up remains uncertain, but the conclusion of my lifelong learning is that I don\u2019t think the American Nation-State can survive in its present form.\u00a0 Revolution is due.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

ENDS<\/p>\n

\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Conclusion: Despite its 250th anniversary, American democracy has always been a bit creaky, with norms instead of laws that a chief executive could exploit.\u00a0 Countries that used the American model for their Nation-State wound up with autocratic executives.\u00a0 America didn\u2019t because it got lucky.\u00a0 And because of that it never learned the outcomes of populism like France did.\u00a0 \u201cIt couldn\u2019t happen here\u201d has always been America\u2019s blind spot.<\/p>\n

But it IS happening here. America is experiencing crisis after crisis, and I predicted in an earlier column that there will be blood before this phase passes.\u00a0 ICE has already drawn blood without consequence.\u00a0 As in days of yore, the President and his henchman have a king\u2019s immunity from accountability.<\/p>\n

So where is the breaking point? Time for another prediction: <\/p>\n

A draft executive order made public a few days ago dictates that Trump will declare a national emergency to take control of the 2026 Midterm Elections (for example, feds seizing ballot boxes and counting the votes themselves).\u00a0 This despite the administration of American elections being constitutionally delegated to the states.<\/p>\n

I predict the breaking point will be when state and federal forces skirmish.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Already California\u2019s Middle Class pays by far the most taxes to the federal government and gets the least back. \u00a0This is basically true of 19 other mostly left-leaning states.\u00a0 Proposals have been floated to just not pay the feds\u2014called “soft-secession\u201d\u2014and do better things with the $800 billion California would save.\u00a0 And that\u2019s where the Democratic-leaning \u201cblue states\u201d are headed. Why should they pay the federal government to suppress them?<\/p>\n

This is how the Middle Class is fighting back.\u00a0 As, historically, it always does when it is over-taxed and feeling like it\u2019s not getting anything back.<\/p>\n

Democracy exists for a reason.\u00a0 Compared to all the other governing systems, it is actually the best way to allocate resources over time.\u00a0 Let\u2019s see if people in democracies can learn from history and change course.<\/p>\n

But I\u2019m not sure that\u2019s going to happen in America.\u00a0 Trump has the most personal power of any president in American history, and he rules with complete historical incuriosity.\u00a0 His toadies only study historical examples of how to advance their power.\u00a0 They don\u2019t study the backlash because they are so cocksure they can suppress it.<\/p>\n

But there will be backlash\u2014because the Middle Class aren\u2019t powerless peasants.\u00a0 So, sadly, there will be more blood.\u00a0 Where it all ends up remains uncertain, but the conclusion of my lifelong learning is that I don\u2019t think the American Nation-State can survive in its present form.\u00a0 Revolution is due.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,22,20,76,16,77,64,31],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-17691","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-academia","category-cultural-issue","category-history","category-important-statistics","category-labor-issues","category-on-democracy","category-sitys","category-tangents"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.debito.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17691","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.debito.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.debito.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.debito.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.debito.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=17691"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.debito.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17691\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":17694,"href":"https:\/\/www.debito.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17691\/revisions\/17694"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.debito.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=17691"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.debito.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=17691"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.debito.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=17691"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}