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Hi Blog. I have to eat some crow. As I state below, PoliSci is very inexact science, and when new data comes in, I have to change my assessment. I didn’t expect a far-right troll like Takaichi Sanae to become the LDP’s next party leader and probable PM. Now that she is, I have to follow up with a new assessment, which is that she is bad news for Japan’s diversity and democracy itself.
Again, intellectual honesty requires candor and a change of mind when necessary. It’s necessary now. Debito Arudou, Ph.D.
/////////////////////////////////////////////////
TAKAICHI’S PM ELECTION CHANGES MY PROJECTIONS
The recent election of Sanae Takaichi as leader of the LDP probably means Japan’s first woman PM. But this a huge step back for Japan’s democracy and diversity.
By Debito Arudou. Shingetsu News Agency, Visible Minorities Column 70, October 8, 2025
I hate to do it, but I have to retract something I wrote earlier.
In my previous column, “Japan’s Rightward Swing is Overblown” (SNA, August 26, 2025), I argued that an outsider “Japan First” party (Sanseito) was getting a lot of media attention for its blatant xenophobia posing as public policy. But I argued the hype about their showing in the August Upper House Elections was undue because Sanseito remained structurally far from power.
My underlying argument was, “Don’t feed the trolls. Sanseito thrives on this kind of attention.” After all, no real political transition had taken place. Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party, the most successful political party in history at staying in power and destroying rival parties, was still in power with Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba in place. Moreover, the LDP over decades had been doing what Sanseito was noisily advocating all along, only quieter. Beyond the hype, Sanseito was saying nothing new.
Alas, my column has not aged well.
A MONTH IS A LONG TIME IN POLITICS
Ishiba has since resigned his post and the LDP has had new elections for party leader. Stump speeches between successor candidates fell for the anti-foreigner hype and launched a foreigner-bashing olympics. Eventually the extremist candidate won, despite her weird past policy positions, overtly racist statements, and lying about, of all things, foreigners assaulting deer in a park.
Say hello to Sanae Takaichi, the LDP’s new leader and likely Japan’s first female PM.
But don’t celebrate Japan finally choosing a female. In Japan’s long history of women vying for the PM post — from opposition party leader but panderer to the LDP Takako Doi, to outspoken reformer but alleged foreigner Renho — Takaichi has prevailed. The problem is, her world view has been warped by Japan’s systemic sexism, and her policies ironically will only make things worse for her ilk.
Consider the Japanese metaphor (from the opening frame of “Barefoot Gen”) of how if wheat gets trampled down constantly, it eventually shoots back up with even stronger roots. In a society where women of talent have to work twice as hard to get half of what men do, women like Takaichi emerge far more resilient and studious of the rules of engagement in male-dominated societies.
That’s why Takaichi is particularly scary. Not only because she clearly can play the game, but also because, in her thirst for power, she learned the authoritarian playbook better than most.
DISCRIMINATION CREATES MONSTERS
Jake Adelstein’s recent substack polemic, “The Rise of Japan’s Female Trump,” has the receipts. Please read it for yourself, but let me crib:
The new rules of engagement were created by the far-right Brahmin Shinzo Abe before he was assassinated. Famously heralded as “Trump before Trump,” PM Abe captured state broadcaster NHK and cowed unfavorable media with threats of lawsuits and denied access (even getting columnists critical of Japan like me fired from the Japan Times). He began remilitarizing Japan to aggravate the balance of power in East Asia. He launched domestic economic policies that increased social inequality and only heightened people’s politics of grievance. He undermined Japan’s pacifist Constitution and even the concept of human rights itself. And he sucked up to and enabled Trump as an unconditional ally on the international stage.
Most importantly, as far as this column space goes, Abe parlayed a fear of outsiders (particularly Chinese) into policy drives while ironically opening Japan up to their tourists, which in turn fanned a xenophobia he found useful. His ultimate goal was to return to an era when elites (like his family) ran the place like a divine, racially superior nation. He succeeded well enough to inspire a future generation of proteges.
Hence Takaichi is Abe Redux, except as a commoner with Imposter Syndrome. She’s more vocal about Abe’s worst ideas in order to seek the approval of the Nippon Kaigi clique. On the kooky side, she has claimed divine inspiration for her political aspirations and sees Japanese as genetically superior life forms. She has also openly advocated learning from Hitler (yes, by name) about how to win elections and then overturn democratic institutions through “emergency measures” against newfound enemies. In other words, find your monsters and then go do something monstrous.
She’s already found boogeymen in the oddest corners — for example, foreign deer kickers in Nara, or foreigners escaping criminal charges due to a lack of police interpreters — stories that turned out to be as fictitious as Trump’s “they’re eating the cats, they’re eating the dogs” lie.
Yet these easily certifiable lies didn’t disqualify him, or her. In the old days, Prime Ministers got in international trouble for saying things like “blacks, Puerto Ricans, and Mexicans make the average IQ score in America exceedingly low” (Yasuhiro Nakasone). Not anymore, and not just because of Trump. In an information economy where fear and rumor spread far faster than the fact-checker, stoking xenophobia remains an effective strategy.
And with the number of foreign tourists and residents at record levels, we get a perpetual positive feedback loop — especially if you don’t distinguish between tourist and resident. Just focus on any real or perceived slight from by a Visible Minority in your neighborhood or local convenience store, claim they’re part of an invading horde here to destabilize our society, and you can simultaneously claim victim and savior status for yourself.
What’s next? Emergency edicts to save Japan from being undermined by rapacious outsiders? As I mentioned earlier, this has been a mantra for Japan’s far-right for decades, only quieter. This time we have loud and clear policy drives not only to curtail tourism, but also to end immigration (such as it is?) and international exchange programs. That’s just for starters. Trickle-down effects are stories about people being targeted on the street and afraid to go outside for fear of actual violence from angry strangers.
But these xenophobic slogans aren’t simply to garner votes in the short term. They are part of a fascist playbook they know will work in the long term, because they have in other countries. The politics of grievance here have firm and specific targets.
But back to Takaichi in particular. Having clawed her way to the top and bested all her detractors, she will probably be as ruthless towards her targets as Japanese society has been towards her. She’s not going to empathize with fellow women and minorities and try to make things better for them. She will lord it over them with particular vim as a victorious survivor.
That’s why I’m going to have to recant my previous column. I was probably blinded by how comparatively bad it’s getting in America (my current focus of teaching) and how fast it’s going down the authoritarian slope. I guess I saw Japan as a milder example that hadn’t tipped yet. No longer.
Of course, if I try hard enough, I can come up with “calm-down caveats” like last column. For example, Takaichi’s election as LDP leader was not at all a slam-dunk; she was nowhere near a majority in the first round of party ballots, and she only narrowly beat off her rival in a second runoff election. And as of this writing, she’s still not PM, because other members of the ruling coalition haven’t voted her in yet. It’s still unclear whether the more moderate alliance party Komeito will stomach her.
But either way, with the power she now has over the LDP, I can very easily see Takaichi making a new political alliance with Sanseito and taking things down an even darker path.
POLI SCI AS AN INEXACT SCIENCE
This is one of the issues Political Scientists have with parliamentary systems like Japan’s. A country’s leader is not voted in by the population in general (like presidents), but rather by a local constituency, and the rest of the party later remotely chooses their leader who goes on to be PM. Fringe candidates and firebrands do sometimes go all the way to Wembley. That’s what happened with Takaichi.
And this firebrand will just keep pointing to any handy foreigner infraction (ignoring the iconoclastic Japanese doing the same), loudly foreigner-bash to drown out any economic bad news, and channel the results into policies to enforce conformity and tamp down on dissent. Put “Japan First” to “save the country” from conditions that the LDP, the party in charge for most of Japan’s Postwar Era, are in fact responsible for. The templates are all there — even something as extreme as sealing Japan off from foreign entry (as the government did during Covid) has precedent!
And if she fails? She won’t disappear. Ruthless politicians clawing their way to power will do anything to preserve it. No doubt she’ll dedicate the rest of her life to making things as miserable as possible for foreigners and “anti-Japanese” minority voices. It’s now her brand. And there are other proteges to take up the mantle.
So how much damage to Japan’s democracy can Takaichi do? Quite a lot if she adopts that well-tested modern authoritarian playbook. Yes, parliamentary governments can collapse with a single scandal, and Takaichi may just be a flash in the pan. But at this point, my making an assessment like this feels Pollyannish.
Japan has always been susceptible to the fear of foreigners coming in and destroying its essence. That’s the very reason Japan became a country in the first place!
Last word: Let me say oops. A month in politics is a long time and Political Science is an inexact science. In the spirit of intellectual honesty and candor, I have no problem changing my mind once new data comes in. Takaichi’s election changes my assessments significantly.
Something wicked for the world’s democracies still this way comes. This time it’s Japan’s turn.
ENDS
======================
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54 comments on “My SNA Visible Minorities column 70: “Takaichi’s PM Election Changes My Projections”, on how I have to recant my previous column because this new LDP party leader and probable PM is bad news (Oct 8, 2025).”
‘When the facts change, I change my mind.’
Kudos to you Dr. Debito.
Great column as always. I actually think that there’s a middle ground to be made here. I wouldn’t say that you were wrong on everything. You were right when it comes to Sanseito’s (current) power being overblown, since they won’t form a government (at least any time soon):
https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/16074144
, but I guess you underestimated the pull they’ll have on the LDP and general public, which have been fed a lot of anti-NJ sentiments hidden under the guise of “overtourism”.
https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20251005/p2g/00m/0na/004000c
The Mainichi article also agrees with your column:
“Takaichi supports the imperial family’s male-only succession, opposes same-sex marriage and a revision to the 19th-century civil law that would allow separate surnames for married couples so that women don’t get pressured into abandoning theirs.
She is a wartime history revisionist and China hawk. She regularly visits Yasukuni Shrine, which Japan’s neighbors consider a symbol of militarism, though she has declined to say what she would do as prime minister.
Political watchers say her revisionist views of Japan’s wartime history may complicate ties with Beijing and Seoul.
Her hawkish stance is also a worry for the LDP’s longtime partnership with Komeito, a Buddhist-backed moderate party. While she has said the current coalition is crucial for her party, she says she is open to working with far-right groups.”
So like I said a few weeks ago, nothing good will come out of this, especially for NJ.
If Komeito is really going to exit the coalition because she’s too racist even for them, I can only imagine what horrors will follow. Sanseito’s leader says that they won’t rule together with the LDP for now, but like I said previously, in 5 years from now things will probably look different.
Great comments there!
My prediction;
In 6 months Takaichi will be teetering close to a leadership challenge from within the LDP because of her Abe cosplay/Abe tribute act routine will just make trouble for J-Inc, increase the cost of living, and be an international embarrassment to Japan.
To head off a leadership challenge, she will call a general election to legitimize her party leadership position.
The LDP will be unable to secure a majority.
The LDP will break into two new parties; Takaichi will head a more extreme right party that Sanseito members will defect back into.
More centralist LDP cliques will form a new party that will align with all other mainstream parties to form a coalition majority government to block Japan’s extreme right.
I could be wrong.
— I know that feeling. But that seems a reasonable assessment to me at this juncture.
Well, Tetsuo Saito, leader of the LDP’s junior coalition partner Komeito, has hinted at a possible exit from the coalition.
Among the items on his laundry list, this one in particular is salient to Debito.org:
@JDG, there that’s word again (i.e., ‘coexistence’); let’s see if Abe cosplay can stomach that!
BTW, for kicks I asked AI (GPT-5) for its two-yen; here’s a brief excerpt of what came back with:
Well, this didn’t age very well! LOL!
This is Aso’s revenge. Ishiba told Aso to resign in 2009 and this year Aso tried to force out Ishiba. The LDP right wing got its way but with Komeito out there is a problem and I wonder when the next election is. Aso has met Kamiya so I would not count out Sanseito. Who can be the new coalition partner? Isshin? I wonder. Ishiba is a convenient scapegoat for the LDP’s problems.
And Komeito is out.
https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/16084708
Would be funny if she doesn‘t get the needed nimber of votes to become prime minister, but I think that the CDP will probably come to her rescue and therefore pretty much destroy any real opposition politics.
— I fear it’ll be one of the more rightist parties. That’s what Aso probably wants, and he got the LDP to go for Takaichi.
Called it. This further proves my long held opinion that there‘s no real left party in Japan, except the Communist Party.
https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20251012/p2g/00m/0na/021000c
And now the story shifted and it looks like CDP and DPFP plan to work together to field in the next prime minister and oust Takaichi.
https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20251014/p2g/00m/0na/028000c
Bizarrely (but sadly not surprisingly) someone told me today that all the lawmakers who don’t support Takaichi for PM are on China’s payroll, and that all the people who DIDN’T vote for the LDP in this years election ‘aren’t Japanese people, Japanese people all voted for the LDP’.
It’s just a mind boggling position to hold. And apparently it’s all there on YouTube if you trigger the algorithm in just the right way.
It’s the ‘alternate facts’-ification of the Japanese electorate.
If you don’t mind me asking, how and why do encounter and tolerate listening to such individuals and which woodwork do they crawl out of? Furthermore, who are they to espouse such brazen opinions to an NJ?
A decade ago I would encounter weird rando oyaji in their cups at ramen shops who went too far, but we would just icily freeze them out til they got the hint and shoved off.
Even if these boorish trolls are your colleagues or workmates, I should have thought such talk not appropriate for the workplace, but perhaps I am being too naive.
It’s my experience that these people exist at the intersection of the type who ‘Japansplain’ and the type who think NJ *must* love everything about Japan AND agree with all glitz historical actions OR be Japan haters who should go home.
Whether it’s an intersection between those two groups that has previously been invisible to be but is now growing in conspicuousness or a new phenomena, I don’t know (research PhD. up for grabs there, credit me in your references).
In my experience it’s friends of friends, co-workers significant others, people who are one step removed from me, but the intermediary relationship is important enough that I don’t want to make trouble/don’t need any trouble.
Normally they start by being quite friendly when they discover that I can converse in Japan and am aware of some arcane price of information about Japanese culture or pre-modern history. I think at this point they view me as a ‘wannabe Japanese’ and regard me as Momotaro did one of the animals in his legend; allied but subordinate to Japanese (because I love Japan!).
The moment they go too far with some right wing rubbish and I politely and calmly calm them out, they start Japanslpaining. When I demonstrate that I know more about the topic than they do and show them the inaccuracies in their argument, they become quite agitated and seem to regard me as ‘anti-Japan’ who has ‘infiltrated’ Japan in some way. And I think this is (as I recently -for the first time ever- posited) because the inherent racism in Japanese culture dictates that ‘good’ NJ know their place; they are deferential and subordinate to Japanese.
This is, I believe, a case of projection on the part of the Japanese (they think they have exemplary manners and interpersonal harmony) but are completely oblivious to the fact that the ‘good’ NJ they interact with ARE NOT deferential and subordinating themselves to Japanese at all! These NJ just have good manners and are being polite and respectful to the people (and relationships) around them instead of saying things like;
‘Yasukuni? Get over it, you lost.’
Or ‘Hiroshima and Nagasaki may have been war crimes, but we won, so we makes the rules’.
Because I don’t say stuff like that and go around giving people coronaries, they mistakenly believe that I have bought into all their ill-informed apologist revisionist clap-trap.
You are a far more patient man than I- I just freeze these people out or mock them through Clown Show; that is, make the girl I know laugh by doing sill Pythonesque stuff while the boorish J- guy who tagged along gets incresingly frustrated because I am too silly to enter into a deep conversation about Rondon Rife or the Correct View of History etc.
Am also reminded of Chinese GF’s gay Japanese barman friend who for reasons unknown would always start “educating” us postgrads on how Japanese rule in Korea was “good” (he didn’t give any examples), when in his cups. I do not know why he chose Colonial Korea as a topic, maybe he was indirectly working his way around to the “Positive Benefits of Nanjing” and thought he would sound us out of Korea first, but sadly he was dealing with two hedonists who were just there for the drinks and couldn’t give a toss either way.
Still, it got to be tiresome so I just told my GF “don’t bring him anymore, he is annoying”.
‘good’ NJ know their place; they are deferential and subordinate to Japanese.
So many times have I been told I was “the gaijin (not particularly menacing looking, polite, fairly fluent Japanese) We Japanese like and does well in Japan” so it always comes to some surprise when my fierce western individualism kicks in and I won’t do just anything they tell me, or I just quit- usually feigning excuses Japanese always pull like sickness, etc.
I’ve heard some revealing opinions though; “why don’t you want to be a salaryman? You get your own desk” or, “You say you have your own ambitions? That’s narcissistic personality disorder!”- that last one dovetailing with a raised voice being equated with Domestic Violence etc- but these are better filed under “Western Concepts Japanese have Appropriated and then Overused and Misused to the Point of Meaninglessness” so I have digressed.
Well, Takaichi is off to a flying start!
(She can’t even get out of the gate, and starts her leadership of the LDP with the threat that she might not even be made PM).
She’s doomed.
Japan’s Liz Truss.
Short-lived PM or not, after she’s shown the door, she’ll swerve super-hard right and spend the rest of her political life accusing shady cabals of anti-Japan forces of a conspiracy to prevent her saving Japan, mark my words. Because she is incapable of self-reflection and realizing that she doesn’t represent the majority of Japanese people or businesses.
As pointed out before, no one really wants to be PM while Trump is in office, plus its a minority Govt and has already lost Soka Gakkai, ahem sorry I mean NEW Komeito (no connection, of course) so cynics may opine that the talk among the Erai Oyaji was “Shoganai ne, OK might as well let the woman do it” I.e. a scapegoat if things all go wrong.
Unfortunately she might now be even more inclined to patch up her support with an unholy alliance of right wing parties. Shades of Von Papen underestimating a certain Austrian corporal, but I digress.
So, I was correct to predict that Sanseito’s election ‘success’ (thanks in no small part to the disproportionately large amount of attention the media gave them in the run up to the election) has led to the LDP attempting to head off further electoral defections by choosing a leader further to the right than previously.
They chose Takaichi.
Who is so performatively discriminatory and inflammatory re: NJ and right-wing soap box issues that Komeito said ‘bye-bye’ to their coalition partner.
Leaving Takaichi so short of parliamentary votes she is unable to become PM.
So she’s going to ally with ‘Japan Innovation Party’ whose platform includes such anti-NJ measures as;
‘calling on the government to implement new policies that not only limit the number of non-Japanese people living in the country, but also provide a framework for naturalized citizens to be stripped of their Japanese citizenship in certain circumstances.’
https://thediplomat.com/2025/09/discrimination-persists-for-foreigners-who-obtain-japanese-citizenship/
Like I said, the public is angry about NJ tourists, so the government is going to aggravate regional neighbors and persecute resident NJ instead.
Makes sense only in her mind.
@JDG, I took your response to @Baud and ran it through AI (in this specific case, Claude Sonnet 4) with a homemade prompt designed to make your post more transparent. Here’s what popped out:
@JDG, as a follow-up, I asked the model to “Posit why “They fail to recognize that well-mannered NJ residents aren’t actually being deferential””. Here’s what it generated:
JK, two excellent posts! That’s exactly what I was trying to say! Maybe I should stop being a Luddite and embrace AI!
Thank you!
You’re quite welcome!
Not to shill on Debito.org, but you might want to start your AI journey with Duck.ai (it’s from the makers of the DuckDuckGo search engine). They offer free and paid access to several different models; all chats are anonymized.
Studies have shown that between 20-25% of any nation are disposed to believe extreme rightwing narratives, and in the case of MAGA and Brexit those numbers are around 1/3, reminding me of the quote mis-attributed to Herzog;
“Dear America: You are waking up, as Germany once did, to the awareness that 1/3 of your people would kill another 1/3, while 1/3 watches.”
If my theory is correct, then are NJ potentially at risk of sudden danger? What percentage of the Japanese public are predisposed to extreme right wing narratives? How many perceived Japanese ‘friends and allies’ are in fact nothing of the sort, but in fact, due to the dynamic AI has described better than I, merely appear to be so whilst holding deeply discriminatory beliefs about NJ?
It could all go very wrong, very quickly.
“What percentage of the Japanese public are predisposed to extreme right wing narratives? How many perceived Japanese ‘friends and allies’ are in fact nothing of the sort?”
Judging from history, I would say orders from above and “being Japanese” trump all other considerations, even friendships.
I saw a bizarre drama on NHK(?0 a couple of decades ago- wish I knew the name- about a Japanese man in a relationship with a Russian in Japan but when it was revealed she was in fact a Soviet Spy, he had to behead her for some reason – duty called apparently. The weird part was as she was there with her head trapped in a post or whatever, she is also saying”Yes, go on, I understand you have to do your duty to the Japanese nation”. So the narrative went its all very sad, but hey shoganai, loyalty to Japan comes first aka Orders are Orders, as the skipper of the Akikaze saw it when ordered to execute German nuns and babies. However, they did at least hold a Shinto ceremony for the people they had just executed, so I am sure that was a huge consolation to them!
Old habits die hard. Much more recently I invested money in an ailing venue on the condition that my Chinese colleague (to whom they owed money) was hired as manager thus a way for said colleague to get what was owed, sort of. The deal was done, contracts were signed……………………………………………………………………..
and then the owner met “a fellow Japanese” in an airport somewhere who mentioned he wanted to manage a club and hired him (despite no experience) instead! This led to a lot of tension because they still needed my money and customers, but the newbie manager was always saying “no” because he just followed his job title rather than the business reality, culminating in the end of the year-long contract- which was thus not renewed.(I will avoid the digression into their silly vindictive way to frame fme for their illegalities).
The business folded soon after. Owner developed a distinct limp after a visit from some hard looking investors. My point being, being a rando “fellow Japanese” trumps all business, money and work experience considerations.
I have more personal examples; girlfriends and partners taking the side of the J-group against my individual concerns. I think the prevailing attitude is they can be in a relationship with you so long as you go along with the ethos of the J-group- no matter how wrong it is.
The best I got was from my ex who did at least stick with me despite berating me for 1. my lack of stoicism when confronted with unreasonable corporate demands and 2. Telling me I had broken certain taboos by e.g. not staying up all night for an unpaid group activity and advertising the fact I was leaving at 1 am, thank you to all concerned (the “thank you” not being respectful enough).
IMHO the preservation of a Japanese citizen’s duties to the state postwar is the main enduring legacy of Kishi Nobusukebe’s “1955 system”.
“Historian Gordon Prange notes that “the rapidity with which the three resident Japanese went over to Nishikaichi’s cause” troubled the Hawaiians and added: “The more pessimistic among them cited the Niʻihau incident as proof that no one could trust any Japanese, even if an American citizen, not to go over to Japan if it appeared expedient.”[18] Novelist William Hallstead argues that the Niʻihau incident influenced decisions leading to the Japanese American internment on the continental United States. According to Hallstead, the behavior of Shintani and the Haradas was included in an official Navy report dated January 26, 1942. The report’s author Navy Lieutenant C. B. Baldwin wrote: “The fact that the two Niʻihau Japanese who had previously shown no anti-American tendencies went to the aid of the pilot when Japanese domination of the island seemed possible, indicate[s] [the] likelihood that Japanese residents previously believed loyal to the United States may aid Japan if further Japanese attacks appear successful.”[19]”
(Nihau Incident, Wikipedia)
Excellent analysis, thank you for doing that. I find this most interesting, amusing, revealing and also disappointing (that Japan remains so socially backward despite all their 80s Futurist PR. Thus, there is no centre left party of note in Japan but plenty of right wing ones (splitting their vote or are most Japanese right wing?).
The key takeaway for me is how they think someone who speaks Japanese and is interested in Japan must therefore buy into all their reactionary and often racist narratives vis a vis China, Korea, etc.
The analysis is also revealing about how NJs in Japan navigate this paradox, ie. instrumentally and practically but not in reality truly deferentially. They are actually play the tatemae game as well as those Japanese.
Oh the irony… when an NJ says, “Oh that was just tatemae, LOL!”
And she wins, and it‘s already getting bad for NJ on day 1.
https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOUA20AP30Q5A021C2000000/
Already trying to set a cap on the number of immigrants. There‘s still some hope to see it fail in the Diet, since she doesn‘t have a majority, but I‘m 100% sure it will pass, because anyone voting against it will be seen as „anti Japanese“.
And another obligatory Nanjing denier can‘t be missing of course.
https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20251023/p2a/00m/0na/003000c
I agree with Jim, this will just further isolate Japan on a global scale, or like Baud uses to say „too racist, too mendokusai“ to invest into. Oh how the tables have turned.
Yeah, I think the Japan passing has begun.
Myself and JK (I think) posted about the same story of Japan having trouble already attracting cheap imported labour.
Look at Onoda who has a cabinet post.
What is the name of her new ministry?
Half American but makes awful posts about foreigners on X.
Forgot she still had a US passport until she gave it up in 2017.
Wonder if she did her 1040 every year as well as FBAR.
Born in Chicago and she represents Okayama in the diet
Ren Ho was given a hard time for having two passports, but the LDP was OK with Onoda having two?
I don’t know her, but initial impressions do not impress.
Every time I see her she’s sitting bolt upright at cabinet meetings with her hands flat on the table like she’s job hunting. Totally overcompensating for having mixed heritage by being more ‘wajin’ than the ‘wajin’ whilst her boss is overcompensating for not being a man.
There’s so much baggage between the pair of them, I’m surprised anyone else can enter the room.
While I’m at it, can anyone explain to me how Takaichi can go to the US to work as an intern and WITHIN A YEAR write and publish a book explaining US politics to Japanese readers (because she’s such a quick study)? How did she find the time to do that?
She’s so sketchy.
BAWHAHWAHAW!!
Coincidentally, she shares the same family name as The Soldier Who Kept Fighting World War II Until 1974 (not sure if there is a familial relationship or not).
This is interesting;
https://japantoday.com/category/national/false-claim-spreads-of-japan-'mass-deportations'-ministry
False rumors spreading on the non-Japanese language platforms that Japan has created a ‘ministry for mass deportations’ has been spreading.
I encountered this only yesterday.
A Sky News Australia clip about Takaichi on YouTube not only got her name wrong twice on two different attempts, but falsely claimed she was born in America and came to Japan at the age of one (clearly Sky News was unable to differentiate between Takaichi and Onoda).
But more concerning than the slipshod was those ‘journalists’ covered the news were the comments on the video.
Hundreds of anglophone anti-Muslim comments by people who thought that a ‘ministry of mass deportations’ had been established despite the video saying no such thing.
Japan is now being targeted by the Russian government and rightwing loon tech billionaires who use their platforms to spread white-supremacist poison.
Their ignorance of Japan’s NJ issues is really laid bare by their assumptions that immigration issues in Japan must match their own bigoted standpoints.
I mentioned on Debito.org a few weeks ago that Sanseito’s Kamiya had gone off to the US to beg Bannon for financial support, and that Musk was endorsing his racist message on Twitter, but it seems that the white supremacist racists in the US are targeting the wrong group? I think Kamiya is angry about the Chinese and Vietnamese mainly (but not exclusively- white people will not be spared ill treatment).
Also, from the above article, interesting to note that Onoda DOES say;
‘Japan “will strictly handle foreign nationals who do not follow the rules”, but there was no mention of mass deportations.
“The inappropriate use of various systems by some foreign residents, their crimes and misbehavior are causing anxiety and a sense of unfairness among Japanese people,”’
‘Foreign nationals who do not FOLLOW THE RULES’?
WTF? If the ‘rules’ are *that* important, make them LAWS for everyone, otherwise she can get lost.
‘Some foreign residents….crimes and misbehavior’?
Again, WTAF? Crimes, sure, ok, but *misbehavior*? She can get lost again! If it ain’t a crime, why is the government cracking down on it? Holding NJ to a higher standard that Japanese, and setting up ambiguous ‘non-law rules’ that allow the punishment of non-compliant NJ on a whim🙄
And then there’s ‘causing anxiety and a sense of unfairness among Japanese people’! Gee, so now I’m responsible for how stupid people who don’t understand stuff *feel* about things? I can’t control other people’s feelings! Sounds like a ‘you’ problem not a ‘me’ problem.
Again, impoverished Japanese are jealous that they have turned their country into the new low cost tourist destination for the world by choosing the LDP over and over again, so the answer?
Make life intolerable for NJ who actually live in Japan and contribute with tax payments and doing jobs the Japanese can’t/won’t do.
State suicide.
Maybe this is the ‘secret sauce’ in the ‘ministry for mass deportations’?
Yeah, maybe.
Look, all of Japan’s economic, social, and demographic problems can be laid squarely at the feet of the LDP who’ve had almost uninterrupted rule over Japan since the end of the US occupation.
To distract from their complete mismanagement of the nation it’s all ‘gaijin rule breakers!’ and ‘Taiwan emergency is a threat to Japan!’.
After all, how much coverage of the trial of Abe’s shooter have you seen? It’s happening right now, and you’d imagine the news would be poring over it every night, but it’s totally crickets and tumbleweeds.
And let’s not forget, for *this is the Japan Abe said he was going to make, and then they cheered him on while he made it*;
Monetary easing->Inflation->increased cost of living
Devalued ¥ ->more inbound tourism (Abe specifically called inbound tourism a new ‘pillar of the Japanese economy’.
I guess the Japanese are forgetting these facts faster than they revise WWII history.
“WTF? If the ‘rules’ are *that* important, make them LAWS for everyone, otherwise she can get lost.
Yes, I was about to say its idiotic how she conflates Rules with Laws.
But then, everything has to be really simple and black and white in Japan, doesn’t it.
This was the issue of NJs not paying into the govt insurance scam I mean system for decades because it was not actually a law per se
– they finally closed that loophole by simply making it a requirement of a visa renewal post 2012.
They thus blame foreigners for their own inadequate law-making processes.
“‘Some foreign residents….crimes and misbehavior’?
Again, WTAF? Crimes, sure, ok, but *misbehavior*? She can get lost again! If it ain’t a crime, why is the government cracking down on it?””
This is Japan’s version of “Non Crime Hate Incidents” (about to be scrapped in the UK) which give police easy tasks to accomplish; akin to the J police stopping Debito for looking White at Narita because they have a clipboard with a quota they need to fill.
Ditto the police always coming around to the local gaijin house to “check who lived there”. I was not getting out of bed for that one, but it was most interesting to listen to their conversation with the South Asians across the hallway as they went thru a list of names of previous occupants they had on file……….
Abridged from my previous submitted comment on this:
“‘Foreign nationals who do not FOLLOW THE RULES’?
WTF? If the ‘rules’ are *that* important, make them LAWS for everyone, otherwise she can get lost.”
J- Devil’s Advocate; rules trump laws in Japan because the whole political system was imposed on them from their American overlords, shoganai, yada yada.
“‘Some foreign residents….crimes and misbehavior’?
Again, WTAF? Crimes, sure, ok, but *misbehavior*? She can get lost again! If it ain’t a crime, why is the government cracking down on it? ”
– Because its easy. Thus, the police stop Debito in Narita Airport to produce ID he already showed because they think a hapless, clueless tourist will comply, whereas Debito mentioned they were immediately blown off by a J-Oyaji in a suit in a hurry. After all, he looks like an “erai hito”. Its like a non crime hate incident in the UK because its easier to police tweets than increasingly violent streets.
“Holding NJ to a higher standard that Japanese’
– Well, yes. That’s how its arguably been for a while, dovetailing with the paradoxical paradigm of “A gaijin can never fully integrate/be accepted, but are expected to do so (and take on a load of Giri) as much as possible, especially post 2000.
“and setting up ambiguous ‘non-law rules’ that allow the punishment of non-compliant NJ on a whim.”
Whims indeed. It all depends on how the deputized busybody is feeling that day. Or who you get at the Ward Office. Like how the bad habit of not valuing, following or even having written contracts because “thats not Japanese culture” though I believe this trend is declining despite the huge number of black companies (witness how the Black list of universities supplied by Debito far outnumbers the Green list).
I think this is a competing (I don’t want to say common) Japanese myth of “democracy” i.e. any and every Japanese has the “right” to lord it over someone lower than them on the social hierarchy, that now being the common or garden Gaikokujin, other than visiting VIPs with J-minders to present their exceptionalist credentials. Thus, Snitch Sites are a thing.
This is what has really changed in Japan- previously in say, the halcyon days of the 80s, all NJs were default treated as guests, those days, along with living standards and disposable income, have eroded significantly.
More Wajin-induced “social friction”, this time against the Aichi Prefectural Government:
Muslim tourist campaign in Japan prefecture faces protests saying it ‘leads to immigration’ / 「移民につながる」は誤解 愛知のイスラム教徒誘客に相次ぐ抗議
From the article:
And how did things turn out?
Obligatory “Well, That Escalated Quickly“.
We’ve reached the point where Wajin are hallucinating more than LLMs:
Good news, bad news in the Miyagi Prefecture gubernatorial election: Incumbent Murai Wins Historic 6th Term, Defeats Newcomers Backed by Sanseitō Party, but Constitutional Democratic Party Overwhelmed by Sanseitō Wave in Miyagi Governor Race, Former Prefectural Assemblywoman Suffers Major Defeat Despite Support from Diet Members.
https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20251030/p2a/00m/0bu/024000c
Headline;
‘Japan losing attractiveness to foreign workers amid economic stagnation’
Why?
From the article;
‘The notion that you can’t earn money in Japan has spread.’
Japan spent so long frightening itself that NJ are a threat to their ‘unique’ culture that Japan has missed it chance.
Doomloop beckons.
Still, what’s the betting that NJ will be blamed now for NOT COMING?
Shoe on other foot moment, a moment that will last a long time and produce no tangible results, I should think:
“Xi in turn told Japan’s first woman prime minister, ….. that he hopes her government will have a “correct understanding” of his country”
https://japantoday.com/category/politics/japan-pm-says-raised-'serious-concerns'-with-xi-on-south-china-sea-xinjiang1
I can picture them both just trying to “educate” (or Japansplain) each other on the “correct understanding” of how they themselves want to be seen. While neither side makes any attempt to moderate their behavior or self reflect on their own possible errors. No, sirree.
This is even more funny now, considering China is already mad at her (not even 1 month in the office!)
https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/16150190
Yep, as always, the Borg Scripts come out and are recited faithfully, like nationalist mantras:
“China’s view is not in line with Japan’s understanding. ……….” Mr Kihara, the top government spokesman, told reporters
China said the PM’s comments had also “hurt the feelings of the Chinese people”.
They’re just trading cliches at this stage. It will be interesting to see what happens when all the Chinese tourists stop coming. I am sure quite a few nationalist Japanese will be happy though poorer, and 7/11 will be understaffed,
Well, it looks like the tourism industry is not that happy.
https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/16164669
https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20251118/p2a/00m/0li/008000c
Since according to yesterdays study 56% of respondents don‘t want any more visitors, this is what they voted for I guess.
And it gets even funnier, as China issues a travel warning.
https://www.newsweek.com/china-japan-travel-warning-takaichi-taiwan-remarks-11049949
NJ tourists are to blame for Japan’s flu season starting in September this year (allegedly). After all, gotta have some scare mongering to give Takaichi something to justify her anti-NJ policies, but *also* something that didn’t happen on her watch (phew! Blame dodged!);
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2025/11/04/japan/science-health/influenza-season-start/
But do not fear, my gentle Japan-folk! Takaichi, who campaigned for the LDP leadership on her own unique understanding of the ‘NJ problem’ and how to fix it has a plan!
Oh, wait…
She hasn’t got a plan.
She’s promising she’ll have a plan in January (presumably because she hasn’t got a clue having campaigned on scaremongering and internet spread lies, and now she has to placate Japan-Inc that she’s not going to cut off their supply of cheap imported labor and spoil the stock market WHILST AT THE SAME TIME she needs something to ‘prove’ she’s being tough on NJ for the LDP base spooked by Sanseito);
https://japantoday.com/category/national/Japan-to-compile-measures-to-address-foreigner-related-issues-in-January
But in the meantime, Takaichi can distract everyone from this debacle with her summoning of the spirit of the late Shinzo Abe, as she reignites the enthusiasm around his failed ‘Abenomics’ that she ha already pledged to carry out!
Oh, hang on, next summer she hopes to present a plan for economic growth?;
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/business/2025/11/04/economy/takaichi-government-panel-growth/
Wow. She’s a busted flush. She’s got nothing.
Still, when her popularity starts to sag in the polls, she can start banging on about the North Korean abductee issue, right?
Wrong! She’s already doing that right now;
https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20251103_10/
Margaret Thatcher? She’s giving Liz Truss a run for her money at this rate!
Also, Nippon Ishin’s leader has just announced his own attempt to blunt a scandal-in-the-making. You have to wonder if this is the kind of thing that you could have used to force him to compromise his party’s platform to join a coalition with….;
https://japantoday.com/category/politics/jip-co-leader-stops-outsourcing-to-secretary's-firm-after-kickback-report
And despite the Nikkei 225 reaching a record high last week (52,411.34) as of today it’s a couple of hundred points lower (49,104.05) than it was on Oct 21st, the day Takaichi became PM (49,316.06).
The markets have spoken on her plan to print and spend whist reducing taxes. She is literally ‘doing a Liz Truss’.
And for all the people who say ‘don’t panic! Japanese debt is held by the Japansse themselves, so they don’t have to pay it back!’, well, not anymore.
With zero fanfare, Takaichi has decided that Japanese govt bonds to the tune of $132 BILLION will be sold to overseas investors who will definitely want all their money back plus interest when the time comes;
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/business/2025/11/04/companies/japanese-firms-boost-foreign-currency-bonds-buy/
As far as I can make out, this represents the single biggest threat to Japan as it has the genuine capacity to wipe out the Japanese economy to an extent that will make the ‘lost decades’ look like a utopian time of plenty.
[comment changed at poster’s request]
First Takaichi said there were reports of NJ kicking the deer, but Nara City and the police said they were not aware of any reports having been made.
Then when challenged on this she said that she had received reports and verified them ‘in her own way’.
Now she’s standing up in the diet and saying that she personally witnessed NJ kicking the deer and ‘warned them in English’.
If so, then she must be able to tell us exactly when that was, who she was with, what happened next, why she didn’t call the police, take photos or video, right?
She’s seems to have given three different versions of the same story…
I laughed out loud when I read this, literally belongs to r/thathappened.
Seriously though, these LDP stooges and their colleagues such as Sankei owned JapanTimes (and in large conservatives in general) alwqys claim that you have to follow and obey police orders in order to be a good „gaijin“/citizen. So now we literally have a PM who‘s lying in order to incite further xenophobic tensions and who‘s going out of her way to narratively counter a police investigation.
The police is basically telling the whole country „yeah our PM lied“ just in a polite way, but she keeps doubling down on it. Yeah sure, not a single security camera caught it (including the billion tourists filming), nor the officers constantly patroling the area. But sure, a soon to be PM just randomly stood there in the middle of the park for hours, with no security and no other witnesses and she of course immediately spotted evil foreigners abusing animals („They‘re eating the dogs, they‘re eating the cats… they‘re kicking the deers.“)
Get out of here! She‘s an embarrassment. At least Abe generally believed that Nanjing never happened and that the „Japanese race“ is superior, so while he told historical and scientific lies, he never had to resort to personal lies.
Takaichi takes the whole thing to another level in my opinion. Debito, I would love to read your thoughts on this in an upcoming column if you have the time.
— Thanks. I’ve already weighed in on a Takaichi Administration in my previous SNA column. Until we get concrete policies passed that I can weigh in on, all I can do is further speculate, and that’s something I’d rather not do. I doubt my columns would carry enough heft to shift the direction of future policies anyway. Moreover, any English-language venue that could do that, from The Japan Times to The Washington Post to The New York Times, has been or is swiftly being neutered by its owners.
Thanks, I understand your position. Just to avoid confusion and make my standpoint more clear, I never thought that your columns could shift Japan‘s policies (believe me, I wish they could), I just enjoy reading and discussing them. One reason I love this website is exactly what you hinted at, there‘s no owner and editor in chief (except for yourself of course), so there‘s no censorship when it comes down to calling out xenophobic policies.
As far as I know this is the first time a Japanese PM has lied about a specific situation involving NJ. What we usually get are general lies, ie. Ishihara‘s claim that during an earthquake foreigners would riot, or that foreigners will destabilize the country, etc., but I‘ve never heard of any Japanese politician, much less the PM, literally inventing a specific story just to further put oil into the fire that‘s called xenophobia.
You‘re right that this may be a little too specific and just „too little“ for a whole column, especially since it‘s not an actual policy, but my gut feeling is that this is a turning point for Japan.
Maybe you could comment on it if she keeps word and announces the cap on NJ workers in January.
Whatever you decide on, I will of course still keep reading and eagerly await any new content. I think that we‘ll have a lot to talk about next year, unfortunately not in a good way, but hey, calling out Japanese xenophobes in power is what I‘m here for.
— Thanks for the kind words. Once I see something specific in terms of public policy either passed or in the latter stages of being hammered out, I will probably comment on it. But I have a very uneasy feeling that Onoda feels personally responsible for her foreignness and has something to prove — that she’s “one of the good ones”. That is a poor mindset to have. This isn’t Renho commenting on a general issue of wasteful spending, unrelated to her purported “foreignness” at all. This is Onoda tasked with a specific mission to deal with the divisive half of herself. The fact that she’s always been venomous regarding this issue in specific is portentous of what Aso and Nippon Kaigi want regarding restoring the ethnostate.
Takaichi only sleeps 2-4 hours a night?
https://japantoday.com/category/politics/japan-pm-takaichi-says-she-sleeps-only-2-4-hours-a-night
That would explain a lot, if it was true, but I just don’t believe that it is given then know health effects of long-term sleep deprivation.
She’s just coming across as unhinged to me now.
Thank you doctor!
Oh, nothing xenophobic to see here, just the Editorial Board of the Sankei Shinbun saying;
‘Currently, foreigners comprise 3% of Japan’s total population. That figure is projected to rise to 10% in the future. Nonetheless, should it actually reach that level, Japanese society could well descend into chaos.’
DESCEND INTO CHAOS!😱
I know quite a few countries where the NJ are the vast majority, including the world’s #1, 2 and 3 economies. Not so much chaos.
https://japan-forward.com/takaichi-policies-on-the-right-track-vs-law-breaking-foreigners/
Sankei Shinbun is screaming and hysterical about NJ- check out the other articles is you are prepared to risk hospitalization for ‘repetitive-eye-roll’ injury.
@JDG, it’s waaaaay worse than you think — here’s why — I copied the text from the above article (omitting any information that would identify authorship / the media outlet) and pasted it into a prompt for Claude Sonnet 4. Below is the exact prompt I used followed by the response:
Does the tone of this article sound like it was written by The Global Times or a similar CCP party mouthpiece?
He’s back!
And he’s been so deeply missed!
After all, he was hilarious! Every single gushing, fan-boy, cheerleading, fantastical prediction for the Abe administration totally failed to materialize (flying taxis in Tokyo at the Olympics? Healthcare robots eliminating the need for imported labor? Japan’s world leading ‘global age’ in tech?).
His wife maybe has a new hedge fund she needs investors for?
Because now he’s BACK! to tell us that Abenomics was such a MASSIVE SUCCESS that only Takaichi’s ‘Abenomics 2.0’ can save Japan from being too successful.
How do these people lie in bed at night, they’re not straight with themselves.
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/commentary/2025/11/14/japan/takaichi-and-making-abenomics-20-successful/
Anyway, what have we got so far?
Deer fantasies.
Sleep deprivation.
Lauded by a guy who’s never got it right.
She’s NOT Magaret Thatcher, she’s LIZ TRUSS!
In other news 66% of voters support Takaichi’s tougher policies on immigration.
Interesting to note however is how the survey lumped together tourists and immigrants into a single category, AGAIN.
https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/16162590