Some Q&A with a reporter about Japan’s xenophobia, before the July elections. Do my claims still hold water?
More than a month ago a reporter asked me some questions about the state of Japan in the run-up to the July 20 Elections. With permission, I gave some pretty thorough answers. They didn’t end up getting used, so I’ll publish them here. Since my next SNA column will probably develop the thoughts of my answer to Question 4 below, I’m open to your feedback. Thanks.
4) Do you think that anti-immigration sentiment is a bigger problem in Japan than it is in other countries, and do you think that we are witnessing the early stages of significant populist, anti-foreigner movements in Japan?
DEBITO: My current field of study is the erosion of democracies worldwide. If we’re comparing Japan to other countries, the alarmism in Japan seems a bit more muted. Japanese democracy might seem a bit more robust because, even after a good three decades of racist demagogues, the all-powerful bureaucracy in Japan is still steadfast against the populist erosion of state power. And people tend to trust government as a problem solver more in Japan than other societies.
Do I see a Japan-styled Trump taking power? I have seen plenty of wannabes in Japan’s online trolls and fringe political parties, and with this election on July 20, populist xenophobia in stump speeches is more overt than ever. But all of those slogans have been said before in previous elections–and even by elected representatives in the ruling party afterwards.
What’s different now is that there are more parties making xenophobia their main party plank, offering voters a feeling of outside choice. For some, it’s better than voting the same old parties who will as usual forget their slogans once elected. But so far I see more media focus on old slogans as if they’re something new. This time the media has a clearer peg to hang a story on with the rise of fascism within Japan’s closest geopolitical ally.
But the fact still remains that in Japan, plenty have tried the Trumpist playbook, but none have succeeded compared to other democracies. None have coalesced into a coherent and unified social movement with clear plans to dismantle institutions, as compared to Hungary, Poland, Turkey, Britain, France, Italy, The Netherlands, or the United States. If that changes, I don’t think it’ll be triggered by foreign migration or tourism. It’ll be due to an external threat like a saber-rattling North Korea or an expansionist China, as it always has in Postwar Japan. But July 20 will be a litmus test of this theory. Until then, that’s the best assessment I can offer.