TPR: Election Day Prognostications by Arudou Debito


Hi Blog. Trying to make this as timely as possible:

Trans Pacific Radio put up last night an audio interview with me about how I think today’s Japan Upper House election will turn out.

In sum: I think Abe will have to resign over the poor performance of the LDP in this election. He’s had one of the worst cabinets in Japan’s postwar history, and he’s definitely become a political liability (to the point where at least one poll indicates a majority believe we should have a snap election in the Lower House now too).

(I am of course an armchair observer, not a true politico, but for what it’s worth. You can of course throw Internet raspberries at me within 24 hours if I’m wrong…)

Have a listen at:

How it’s written up at TPR follows. Arudou Debito in Sapporo


Seijigiri #29: Seijigiri’s Election Day Special with Debito Arudou

For our election day special release, Garrett and Ken sat down with Debito Arudou for a quick and dirty discussion (just under 20 minutes) of elections in Japan, what the voting process actually involves, the difference between voting for a party and voting for a candidate, and some speculation on what results we may see from today’s election.

Discussed in this edition of Seijigiri is a recent article by Adam Richards (Upper House Prediction at the Mutant Frog Travelogue.

Seijigiri will be back soon with a rundown and discussion of the election results, as well as the usual analysis into what we should expect to see in Japan’s political scene for the upcoming months…


2 comments on “TPR: Election Day Prognostications by Arudou Debito

  • What, no baby kissing?

    Good to hear that you had a nice personal experience with a politician. Too bad those types of politicians don’t win very often…

  • Jeff Korpa says:

    Internet raspberries incoming!

    The LDP won only 37 of the 121 seats up for grabs in the Upper House and as a result, the Japanese media have called for Abe’s resignation. Abe has said that he will continue as prime minister, which tells me that he’s staying put unless he’s forced out. This is all very interesting because previous prime ministers have been forced to resign over less horrific results (e.g. in 1998, the LDP won a total of 44 seats in the Upper House, forcing then-Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto to step down immediately).

    You may recall that Abe’s predecessor was in a similar situation (the LDP only won 49 seats in the Upper House) yet Koizumi decided to stand his ground, so perhaps we’re seeing a bit of a trend here. Needless to say, if the Prime Minister of Japan remains in power throughout his/her term, this ultimately allows Japan to achieve greater political continuity and stability.

    At any rate, Abe said that he will reshuffle his Cabinet in September, so this gives him the option to shift blame for his inability to deliver results.



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